Many bettors across the country always look to Sunday Night Football to either cap off a solid week of gambling, or to use the game to climb out of a hole they dug themselves into during the afternoon slate of NFL games.
Week 16’s Sunday Night Football matchup features two of the most prolific offenses in football as the Tennessee Titans travel up to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field to take on the Packers in primetime.
O/U 53 Points
The public will surely turn their heads directly to the total which Mybookie.ag currently lists at 53. With MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers on one side and the Titans’ league-leading offense headed by Derrick Henry, there is enough offensive firepower to go around.
Despite featuring two of the five leading candidates for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award, betting UNDER 53.5 appears to hold more value. This total has been consistently dropping all week long after opening at 56.
Snow, wind (14 mph) in forecast tonight in Green Bay. Total opened around 55.5, climbed to as high as 56.5 during the week, before coming back down to 53.5, where it sits three hours prior to kickoff.
— David Payne Purdum (@DavidPurdum) December 27, 2020
The easiest explanation to this sizeable decrease in the total would be the weather. With temperatures in the upper 20s and snow in the forecast, throwing the football won’t come as easy for either of these teams as it has been on the last handful of games.
DERRICK HENRY WEATHER ❄️ pic.twitter.com/CNnKq2PDQn
— Titan Up Podcast (@TitanUpPod) December 27, 2020
While the total has gone over for the Titans in five of their last six games, points tend to come at a premium in December at Lambeau Field. The total has gone UNDER in each of the last seven Packers home games in the month of December.
Derrick Henry OVER 8.5 Receiving Yards
With gusts of wind forecast at around 25 MPH, these two teams may opt to include shorter route combinations to do damage in the passing game.
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) December 27, 2020
Henry will see plenty of usage tonight as he continues in his quest for 2,000 rushing yards this season. But with his rushing yards set at 108.5 (-145), the number along with the juicy vig at 45 cents on the dollar are enough to make anyone skittish.
While Henry’s ground attack will be the focus of Green Bay’s 11th ranked rush defense, it would come as no surprise if Titans offensive coordinator Arthur Smith baits the Packers with a steady diet of Henry runs early. It would then set them up with a slip screen or an underneath route out of the backfield designed for Henry.
Expect to see Derrick Henry get involved in the passing game with 10-20 MPH winds & snow in Green Bay ❄️ https://t.co/xo1W3mPpnj
— Jack Gentry (@jackagentry) December 27, 2020
Henry is not known for his hands, but he is facing a Packers defense that has allowed an average of 42.8 receiving yards to opposing running backs over their last five games. Henry is averaging slightly above one reception per game this season, but one catch might be all Henry needs to eclipse this low number.
Featured image courtesy of Michael Wyke/Associated Press