To this point in the season, handicapping the Titans has been relatively easy and our 8-1 record on Titans gambling previews speaks for itself. This week is quite the doozy though.
If you clicked on this link expecting me to tell you who was going to win the game, you came to the wrong place. The Titans are three point favorites which is basically Vegas saying these are evenly matched teams with the home field advantage being worth three points.
With that being said, you won’t catch me sniffing the spread this week.
Not betting on the spread isn’t a knock on Tennessee, but it is more so a testament to how unpredictable the Texans have been. One week they look unstoppable, then follow it up by looking like the Bad News Bears of football. For that reason, we will stick with the over/ under.
Notes for Texans vs Titans:
HOU ranks last in yards per play allowed on the road. TEN ranks 7th in yards per play at home
TEN leads the NFL in red zone TD conversion %. HOU ranks 31st in opponent red zone TD conversion %
Titans are 12-2 SU in their last 14 as home favorites
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) December 12, 2019
This week’s total points is 51.5 which is easily the highest in the league and one of the highest of the NFL season. By putting the total this high, Vegas is wanting you to take the under, they are trying to bait you into it. Don’t take the bait though. We are sticking with the over.
The Ryan Tannehill over train continued to roll last week in Oakland and now Tennessee has hit seven straight overs. Houston has hit the under in four of its last six games, but guess what… the same was true for the Raiders coming into last week and the over was smashed in the Black Hole.
Here is what we’ve learned over the last couple of weeks from the Texans. Their last two games have finished with total scores of 50 and 62. They scored 28 points on the Patriots defense which goes to show that their offense is capable of scoring on anyone, but they also allowed 38 to Denver which means anyone can also score on them, especially the Titans.
There have been 11,878 NFL games played (both playoffs and regular season) since the merger in 1970. The #Titans have 2 of the top 30 games in terms of yards per offensive play in modern NFL history in the past 3 weeks. This is extraordinarily rare territory.
— Mike Herndon (@MikeMiracles) December 9, 2019
The Titans’ last four games have finished with absurd total scores: 67, 62, 48, and 63. Add that together with a Texans team who is notorious for giving up good games to tight ends and you can expect Jonnu Smith to have a solid outing. Also with the news that Adoree Jackson will not play Sunday, the Tennessee secondary becomes thin against arguably the best receiving corps in the NFL.
The only variable that could derail the over is if Derek Henry tweaks his hamstring early and is out or slow for the remainder of the game. We saw a glimpse of this in Oakland, but it still isn’t enough to persuade me to take the under.
The weather will be nice and the points will be stacking up on Sunday afternoon in Nissan Stadium. The best part for you as a gambler is that it won’t matter who wins, you just get to sit back and enjoy the fireworks.
Take the over and let’s roll on to 9-1.
Feature Image: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports