We’re back in action with our Titans Gambling previews after the Titans decimation of the Bills on Tuesday Night Football. The knee jerk reaction may be to bet on the Titans to win this game by a zillion points, but let’s take a look at the data and see if it supports that bet.
You know who we aren’t betting on to cover the spread? The Texans. Good lord the Texans have been abysmal this season. Not only are they 1-4 straight up, but they are also 1-4 against the spread with their only win and cover coming against the Jaguars last week.
The Titans also haven’t been cover machines this season either. The bias of recent events definitely lends itself to the thought of Titans being able to dismantle the Texans, but let’s not forget the beginning of the season. This is the same team that beat Denver by two, Jacksonville by three, and Minnesota by one. Those are nail-biter wins against teams that nobody considers to be playoff contenders.
The Titans have only covered the spread once this season.
Tennessee and Houston combine to have a record of 2-7 against the spread. I don’t know about you, but that doesn’t instill confidence in me.
Here’s where we’ll make our money this week. The total opened at 55 and has already dropped by two points to 53 throughout the week.
The total dropping is a common theme in Texans games this year. With people so disappointed in their offensive production without DeAndre Hopkins, nobody trusts their offense. This has led to numbers falling and the Texans actually being 3-2 to the over this season.
At the same time, the Titans are 3-1 to the over this season and have consistently hit overs ever since Ryan Tannehill took over at quarterback. The Titans are 7-1 to the over in their last eight home games.
The Titans offense ranks sixth in the league in points per game and we know the type of offensive production that this team has flashed. The Texans defense has been sub-par, while their offense has done just enough to hit the over three times this season.
Do I think the Titans probably cover? Sure. But I’m not betting on it. I’m smashing the over.