The Tennessee Titans have owned the Jacksonville Jaguars over the last four seasons by winning six of the last seven meetings with an average margin of victory of 7.4 points. So, it should come as no surprise that the Titans enter Sunday’s Week 14 matchup as, you guessed it, 7.5-point favorites.
When searching for angles to find an edge when betting on this game, there are a few different players and statistics that will jump off of the page.
The most obvious is Derrick Henry’s complete and utter destruction of the Jaguars defense over his last five outings against the divisional foe. Henry has averaged 116 yards per game in his matchups with Jacksonville since 2018, but do not let that number fool you.
While 116 yards per game on the ground looks fantastic on paper, Henry’s average is misleading in a sense. The Titans’ running back has only rushed for 100+ yards on two occasions in these last five games versus the Jags.
A lil’ preview of what Derrick Henry vs the Jags will look like Sunday ⚔️pic.twitter.com/RaGmWhXgoG
— 𝓝𝓲𝓬𝓴 ⚔️ (@FeedKingHenry) December 9, 2020
Nobody will forget his 238-yard performance on Thursday Night Football in 2018, which featured a 99-yard touchdown run that will forever be talked about as one of the best runs in NFL history.
Derrick Henry’s lines when playing the Jaguars after the Titans’ Bye Week the last two seasons ⤵️
2018 – Week 14
– 17 carries for 238 yards, 4 TDs 🔥
2019 – Week 12
– 19 carries for 159 yards, 2 TDs 🔥
2020 – Week 14 ???
Sorry for those that are unfortunate enough to face him
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) December 10, 2020
Henry’s other big performance came in the 2019 season when a 74-yard touchdown dash contributed to a 159-yard day on the ground for the Titans’ bell cow. Outside of those two performances, Henry has averaged just over 61 yards per game on a measly 3.1 yards per carry against the Jags.
Henry’s rushing total for Sunday is set at 109 yards (-114), but after dismantling the Jaguars on those two explosive performances, Jacksonville appears to have really keyed in on containing the running back from Yulee, Florida. This is, by no means, an unachievable number for Henry, but if the Titans struggle to jump out to a lead early, game script may not be in the King’s favor.
It’s never easy to bet against Derrick Henry, but this week there might be some hidden value in under 109 rushing yards.
Titans fans, how great is it to finally have two great receivers? Too bad the team took nearly two decades to entertain the novel concept of having playmakers on the outside, but nevertheless, here we are.
Think the Titans secondary has been bad lately? The Jacksonville Jaguars sure would like a word. Over the last eight games, the Jags have allowed an opposing wideout to record over 100 yards through the air contributing to the NFL’s 29th ranked pass defense. The Titans check in at 28th, so don’t throw stones in a glass house, guys.
A.J. Brown sat out the Week 2 matchup between the two teams with a bone bruise in his knee. In Brown’s absence, Corey Davis only hauled in three passes for just 36 yards although he did score a touchdown.
In the two games where Brown faced the Jaguars, he experienced vastly different performances. The first game came in 2019 with Marcus Mariota under center, which did not help Brown’s chances as he finished the game with only one catch for four yards.
With Tannehill under center later in the 2019 season, Brown got loose with four catches and a whopping 135 yards and a score. That’s a 33.8 average yards per reception for those keeping track at home.
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) November 24, 2019
This week, Brown’s receiving total is set at 74 (-109) which is an attractive play against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL.
We are going back to the A.J. Brown well. The Jaguars have allowed a WR to eclipse 100 yards in each of their last EIGHT games!
Head to https://t.co/xLqXDLM57I and use code MYTITANS to double your first deposit!
Best bets are 8-5 on the season 💰 pic.twitter.com/dlplw7FDAp
— AtoZSports Nashville (@AtoZSports) December 12, 2020
Corey Davis has really come on as of late as he continues in his quest for a lucrative second contract in the off-season. But, Davis’ history against the Jaguars is enough to make any bettor a bit hesitant in regards to his props. Mybookie.ag has Davis’ receiving yards set at 66 (-125) which is a tad peculiar.
The Corey Davis breakout is happening. Because, 2020
Overall WR1 (11-182-1) Week 13
65+ yards in each of last 4
33.1% Team Air Yards Share
11.4 Yards Per Target (No.4)
2.88 Yards Per Route (No.2)
Ran season-high 40 routes Week 13
6 rec of 15+ yards Week 13
$5,700 on DK pic.twitter.com/bNGDNQ8aXl
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) December 9, 2020
The Jaguars have done a fine job in bottling up Davis limiting the Titans pass catcher to an average of slightly under two receptions and 24 yards per game when these two teams meet. Sports betting and the stock market have similar fundamentals, and we are looking to use one of the most popular principles in “Buy low, sell high.”
Davis is playing the best football of his career with two 100-plus-yards outings in two of his last three games, but, for whatever reason, he has failed to ever top 44 yards against Jacksonville. It’s time to sell high on Davis this week going under 66 receiving yards as this number is the highest total for Davis of the season.
Featured image courtesy of Tennessee Titans/Donald Page