We are back in action on our Tennessee Titans gambling picks for the 2020 season after going 10-3 in our picks a year ago. Now we start with a fresh slate 0-0.
For those of you thinking, “well what took ya so long?” The answer is simple. Weeks one and two are essentially a crap shoot. By week three we have real data. Now we won’t be making bets for the sake of making bets. Now we’re betting to make money.
What Not to Do this week with the Titans
First things first, don’t you even dare look at, breath on, or think about betting on the total points at 49.
Both teams have hit the over once and the under once this season. The Titans final totals have been 30 and 63 this year. On the other side, Vikings games have totaled 77 and 39.
There is a reasonable argument to be made for the over to hit and the under to cash.
Sure, the Titans proved they can score points without AJ Brown and they can do it again. Sure, the Vikings could take advantage of the still injured Adoree Jackson and sling the ball around the field. I could see both of those things happening.
I could also see both teams keeping the ball on the ground as much as possible and this being a low scoring affair. When Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry are your running backs, that strategy would make all the sense in the world.
What to Do
Take the Titans -2.5.
The simple analysis would be that the Titans have won both games by 2 and 3 points while the Vikings have lost both games by more than 2.5. The Vikings second loss came by 17 to a Colts team who odds makers tend to value as a team comparable to the Titans.
Here’s what will really decide the game though… Turnovers.
The Titans are second in the league in turnover margin (+3) while the Vikings are second to last (-3).
Kirk Cousins: 6 for 20 with a whopping 59 yards.
No touchdowns, of course. He’s thrown 3 interceptions and has been sacked twice.
One sack was when he was taken down in the end zone for a safety.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) September 20, 2020
The Vikings offensive line also ranks 29th in the league in pass protection according to Football Outsiders analytics. This will allow the Titans pass rushers to get all sorts of pressure on Cousins which is great news. According to Pro Football Focus, he was the fifth most affected quarterback by pressure last season.
Let’s imagine that the Titans can’t get pressure though. Kirk Cousins will give the ball away anyway. All four of his interceptions this season have come when he was not under pressure.
The Titans will win the turnover battle and subsequently win the game. Will it be a blowout? I don’t think so. But will the Titans cover? You bet they will!
Take the Titans.
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Cover Image: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports