Game one between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets was played at a very high pace. The over cashed with 227 total points scored, even when neither team’s star player played well. MVP winner Nikola Jokic only scored 23 points but did not play well down the stretch in the fourth. Suns guard Devin Booker was limited offensively all night and scored 21 points. Both of those stars should be able to make the adjustments to have better performances in game two.
The Pick: Nuggets/Suns Over 222.5 (-110)
The Why: It’s the Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets do a lot of things very well, but defense is not one of them. In their seven playoff games, six of them have went well over the total. In game one of this series, the Nuggets scored only 105 points but shot the ball very poorly from three at 35%. The threes that they missed were good shots that were just missed. I don’t think the defense had a lot to do with it. They have shot the ball well from behind the arc all postseason at over 39%, so I would expect them to shoot better tonight.
For the Phoenix Suns, game one was only the third game this postseason for them that has went over. However, I wouldn’t worry about that because they faced the Lakers in round one who had the lowest over percentage in the league. Defensively, Deandre Ayton did a good job on Nikola Jokic, but Jokic has been hard to slow down consistently all postseason. He is averaging 31.4 PPG, so I would expect a bounce back performance from him in this game. The Suns shot the ball well from three in game one at 38.2% and 54.1% from the field. With the Nuggets being awful at defense in the postseason, I would expect the Suns to continue to shoot the ball well, especially Devin Booker and Chris Paul.
Deandre Ayton matched the MVP minute for minute tonight.
Ayton had 20 PTS, 10 REB.
Jokic had 22 PTS, 9 REB.
The Suns won those minutes by 13 points. pic.twitter.com/KC7sOkIa2W
— StatMuse (@statmuse) June 8, 2021
All in all, every trend is pointing to taking the over in this game. For the season, the over is 45-33-1 for the Nuggets and the over is 45-34 for the Suns. The Nuggets have not held a team under 115 points since mid may and have given up over 120 points in five of their last 8 games. My number one rule in sports betting is to follow the trends, and literally every trend is pointing towards the over.
Trends We’re Betting On
Over is 7-1 in the Nuggets last 8
Over has hit in 12 of the last 17 games for the Suns
Over has hit in 7 of the last 10 when these teams have played
Over has hit in 5 of the last 5 when these teams play in Phoenix
Yesterday’s Pick: Jazz -3…Push
Pushing is not fun, but it is better than losing money. The Jazz were down 13 at the half and things were not looking good. Then they came out in the third and fourth quarters on fire and got their lead up to 10. It’s frustrating to push because we were just a free-throw or if the Jazz could’ve hit a shot in the first half away from a cover. We’re back today.
AtoZ Pick Of The Day Record: 4-3-1
Featured Image via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports