The Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers series has been the most exciting game in and game out. Nikola Jokic for the Nuggets, has been pretty close to unstoppable putting up points at a high rate. For the Trail Blazers, it has been Damian Lillard that has been hard to guard for a big chunk of this series. The series returns to Portland for a pivotal game six. With Portland facing elimination and on their home floor tonight in game six, we’re expecting another high-level performance from Damian Lillard.
The Pick: Trail Blazers -5 (-110)
The Why: Trail Blazers’ Stars
Last game the Portland Trail Blazers wasted an all-time performance from Damian Lillard. He scored 55 points, shot 70.8% from the floor and hit 12 threes to set the new NBA postseason three pointers made record. In the series, Lillard is averaging 35.6 PPG and is shooting at a high percentage from the floor and three. The lone off night for Lillard was the last game in Portland, where he only scored 10 points on 10% shooting. There’s no way he plays that way at home again. In home games, this season he is averaging 28.4 PPG. I wouldn’t expect Lillard to match his 55 point performance from last game, but I would expect at least 30 and a high shooting percentage.
The return home will be a welcome sight for the Trail Blazers role players and even their other star player. Last game CJ McCollum scored only 18 points but shot 31.8% from the floor and 25% from three. McCollum will need to play a big role in tonight’s game if Portland wants to stay alive and I think he will. The role players for the Trail Blazers will be glad to be back on their home floor. Players outside of Lillard in game five, shot only 38% from the field. In Lillard’s off game in game four at home, the role players had his back by carrying the offensive load. Norman Powell has been a guy that has stepped up his play in the playoffs, and Carmelo Anthony is always capable of turning back the clock and putting up good numbers. I expect another performance similar to game four from the role players tonight.
Dame: 55 PTS
Rest of Blazers: 85 PTS
Dame: 17-24 FG (70.8%)
Rest of Blazers: 30-79 FG (38.0%)
Dame: 12-17 3P (70.6%)
Rest of Blazers: 9-31 3P (29.0%)
Dame: 17 PTS in both OT
Rest of Blazers: 2 PTS in both OT
Dame: 6-8 FG in both OT
Rest of Blazers: 1-19 FG in both OT pic.twitter.com/QSVkIrZv7r
— StatMuse (@statmuse) June 2, 2021
All in all, we’re going to role with the Trail Blazers to cover this one. The last time the Nuggets played in Portland it was ugly. They shot 34% from the field and 29.5% from three. Expect another rough night from the Denver Nuggets as the Trailblazers will turn up the pressure. Every winner has covered in this series. I expect Portland to win, so there’s no reason not to expect them to cover.
Trends We’re Betting On
The Trail Blazers have covered 7 of the last 10 ATS while being favorites
Denver has covered 3 times in the last 9 against the Trailblazers
The Denver Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 as underdogs
The winner has covered the spread in every game this series
Trend Of The Day
Trail Blazers have covered 5 of the last 6 ATS following a loss
Yesterday’s Pick: Jazz/Grizzlies Over 226.5💰
We’re off to a 2-0 start! I said yesterday that I thought the Jazz were good for at least 120 at home and we got 126. The Memphis offense was kind of stuck in the mud all night until the fourth quarter where we closed it out with plenty of time remaining. All in all, another relaxing and easy night even if I didn’t get to watch the game because of the NBA blackouts. Come on, NBA. Your ratings are not good, so maybe it would be a good idea to let more people watch your games. Just a thought. Nonetheless, we cashed and that’s all that matters!
AtoZ Pick Of The Day Record: 2-0
Featured Image via Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports